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Fear Strikes Out
October 24, 2008

The equity markets trade like we are on the verge of the next Great Depression. De-leveraging in the emerging markets is leading to what some would call the annihilation of several of the most recently popular markets, such as India and Brazil. The fixed income markets have nearly become non-functional at times, with both short-term and long-term lending severely impaired. Nearly every major bank in the world has sought capital from its government. Bear and Lehman, amongst others, are gone. In short, the financial world is in disarray.

So what about hedge funds? Have they fulfilled their role in muting investor pain in times like these? What will investor appetites be like after the carnage is over? How many hedge funds will we have after the dust and blood disappear?

Obviously, none of these questions have a simple answer. Times like these were theoretically made for hedge funds, but hedge funds have suffered greatly as well. Several emerging market funds which had enjoyed high double digit and even triple digit gains in the last couple of years are now crashing with 70%, 80% or even 90% losses for ’08. Many long-short equity funds look almost like the S&P while correlations for nearly all strategies appear to be rising to one. Even relative value strategies and market neutral strategies have been hammered.

De-levering and fear of redemptions have obsessed much of the hedge fund world for the last two months as some estimates for year-end redemptions run as high as 10% of the outstanding $2 trillion assets currently estimated in the space. There is little solace to be found in the fact that the average hedge fund, which is likely down in low double digits year to date, has done better than the average long-only manager. Most investors seem far more concerned with what to do with their existing hedge fund managers as opposed to entertaining an introduction to new ones.

It may not feel like it now, but this environment will end. The only question is when. So what does this mean for the hedge fund world? Our space definitely needs revamping as we once again deal with the realization that leverage is far more a function of risk than return. Increased volatility in itself affords one the ability to achieve outsized returns without the use of leverage. In fact, one could make the case that there is a six- to seven-year cycle of “Black Swan” type events dating all the way back to 1974. The only difference with this event as opposed to prior Black Swan-type market dislocations, is its magnitude.

In fact, one could argue that this type of watershed event is a needed cleansing for the hedge fund industry to reduce the number of marginal managers. It is obvious now that there are too many funds and too many people in the space that do not understand how to manage risk effectively. But let’s not dwell on those entities who are destined to fail. Rather, let’s turn our sights to those who either have managed through this dilemma or who have actually excelled in this environ. There is always and will always be a need for good hedge fund managers; there is just no room for the pretenders now.

The views expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect the views of Channel Capital Group. Inc.

  
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2 Comments
I enjoyed your article for one thing, the staggering losses of hedge funds are music to my ears. I hope the days of people thinking these people are the "smartest ones in the room" is OVER!! If you lever up 30, 40 times of course you were going to get great returns if you were on the right side of the trade. Hedge funds have been destroying the markets for years and finally it's nice to see them eat sh-t and suffer and hopefully go under. Hedgies bragging about $1B paydays is obscene and wrong and I hope it will stop after most of them fail and go bankrupt. The swarminess and attitude of these people is dispicable and outrageous. I look forward to reading more about hedge fund implosions and massive lawsuits and the fact that hedge funds are suppose to "hedge" the markets during volatile times like this and come out on top but don't. In reality they are no smarter or superior in intellect or market wisdom than your uncle recommending a stock. Translation, arrogant, ignorant, stupid and really one big joke. I hope they all crash and burn and lose all there money......
POSTED BY Peter Grexa at 10/27/2008 9:24:40 AM

I second that one. This industry needs to be destroyed. I read today that one fund has 80 PhDs working on writing programs to finding arbitrage situations in the markets. Think of it. 80 PhDs who could be designing new technology or curing diseases are instead employed by rich people in order to devise some way of outperforming other rich people's employees. This is an incredible wast of human talent. First of all, it is just an arms race. They can't possibly all outperform each other. They can't create any real value. But the bigger loss is that some of the smartest people in the world have been lured into a completely non-productive activity. Economic growth is based on creating real savings through real production. No wonder the real US economy has weakened so much. It is a real shame. The first step is that rich people need to realize what a sham it is and oull their money out. When the money is gone, the hedge fund managers will have to find something productive to do. Maybe when Obama is elected some of that wealth can be put to use restoring the vitality of the middle class.
POSTED BY David Johnston at 10/30/2008 1:59:48 AM
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